vendredi 17 août 2012

Une hypothèse on ne peut plus probable : la Grèce ne remboursera pas les milliards d'aide

Et si la Grèce ne remboursait pas les milliards d'aide

Par Guillaume Guichard   

Publié le 31/07/2012 à 08:52

Alors qu'Athènes s'enfonce dans la récession, les pays européens pourraient accepter de ne pas revoir une partie de l'argent qu'ils lui ont prêté.


Prêter des dizaines de milliards d'euros à la Grèce aurait dû être une bonne affaire. C'est ainsi que les dirigeants européens avaient présenté la chose à leurs parlements nationaux lorsque ces derniers ont entériné les deux prêts successifs, en 2010 puis en début 2012. Aujourd'hui, il n'est pas sûr que les quelques 130 milliards d'euros versés à la Grèce jusqu'à ce jour retrouvent le chemin des caisses des États prêteurs.

«L'effacement d'une partie des prêts octroyés par les pays européens n'est pas une question rhétorique, prévient Natacha Valla, économiste chez Goldman Sachs. Il semble qu'il serait très difficile pour la Grèce de rembourser dans les termes prévus initialement.» Non pas que l'aide n'a servi à rien. Mais elle vient gonfler la dette grecque. Dans le même temps, la récession ampute les recettes fiscales de l'État et les programmes d'économies ne produisent pas les effets escomptés. Du coup, Athènes n'est pas plus solvable qu'avant le début de la crise de la dette en zone euro et abandonner d'une partie des créances qui pèsent sur son dos pourrait lui offrir un répit.

La dernière opération de ce genre remonte au mois de mars. Athènes a alors obtenu que les investisseurs privés (banques, assurances, etc.) effacent près de 100 milliards d'euros de dettes. Résultat, les marchés ne possèdent plus que 30% environ de la dette grecque. Le reste est détenu par la Banque centrale européenne et les pays de la zone euro. La part de la France s'élève à 18,8 milliards, accordés via des prêts bilatéraux et les mécanismes européens d'aide financière.

Toute renégociation d'ampleur se concentrera donc dorénavant sur cette dette issue des plans d'aide. Selon l'agence Reuters, des discussions seraient en cours à Bruxelles pour effacer entre 70 et 100 milliards d'euros de crédits et faire passer la dette grecque sous la barre des 100% du produit intérieur brut (PIB) d'ici 2020. Ce ne sont toutefois pas les prêts internationaux, qui ne seront remboursés que dans plusieurs années, qui posent un problème à court terme. Mais plutôt les obligations grecques détenues par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE).

Athènes doit en effet, dès le 20 août, rembourser 3 milliards d'euros à la gardienne de la zone euro. «La question est de savoir si le peu d'impôts récolté par Athènes doit être envoyé dans les caisses de la Banque centrale», s'interroge Jean-François Robin, stratégiste chez Natixis. Jusqu'à présent, c'est l'aide européenne qui permettait de rembourser la BCE. Mais comme le pays est en retard dans son programme de réformes, les prochains versements sont suspendus.
«Repousser les échéances»

Ces prochains mois, «on ne pourra pas faire l'économie d'une restructuration, au minimum pour repousser les échéances de remboursement», estime l'analyste. La BCE ne l'entend pas de cette oreille. Elle qui avait racheté de la dette grecque déjà à contrecœur pour tenter de calmer les marchés au plus fort de la crise grecque au printemps 2010, ne veut pas y perdre. Une partie de la solution passe par l'Eurosystème, le réseau des Banques centrales nationales dépendant de la BCE.

Un accord européen prévoit déjà de reverser à la Grèce le produit des intérêts des titres grecs qu'elle détient, soit 4 milliards d'euros. Une goutte d'eau: la dette publique grecque s'élève à 260 milliards d'euros. Si jamais la BCE devait accepter de plus gros sacrifices, prévient Jean-François Robin, elle pourrait demander des contreparties à ses actionnaires, les États membres de la zone euro.
Source : http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2012/07/31/20002-20120731ARTFIG00271-et-si-la-grece-ne-remboursait-pas-les-milliards-d-aide.php

Theodoros Pangalos publie un livre sur la responsabilité générale des Grecs dans la crise économique que traverse leur pays

Pangalos Says Greeks Still Eating it All Together
By Andy Dabilis on August 14, 2012 in Economy, News, Politics

Former Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos, who stirred anger when he said that the Greek economic crisis was the blame of both politicians and the people who accepted jobs from them, is stirring the waters again with a new book that claims it’s still going on, despite a crushing economic crisis that has the new coalition government ready to impose more austerity.


In an interview with SKAI TV, Panagalos, a heavyweight in the PASOK Socialist party before resigning this year, referred to his statement, “We ate it together,” – the title of his Internet book – and said it perhaps should be called “We’re still eating it together,” alluding to how he believes most Greeks have partaken of a feast at the government trough for decades, creating a staggering $460 billion debt. That made the government of former Prime Minister George Papandreou, then also the leader of PASOK, seek aid from international lenders, who provided it on condition of deep pay cuts, tax hikes and slashed pensions.

Pangalos said wild overspending is still going in certain areas where the privileged are protected, while the new coalition government of New Democracy Conservative leader Antonis Samaras – along with PASOK and the Democratic Left – is going to lower the boom again on workers, pensioners and the poor. He launched a website based on his most notorious quotes,, www.mazi-ta-fagame.gr, asking Greeks to provide information about mismanagement in the public sector, even though his party was responsible for much of it.

Pangalos said all 300 Members of Parliament should be put out because they are lying and telling myths to the Greeks about the country’s economic condition while insulating themselves from the sacrifices they are demanding of others. He said, “A lot who steal a little do a greater damage than a little who steal a lot,” an apparent reference to unchecked corruption and political thievery.

He said that has put the country in a spot where “There is no margin for negotiation,” with the Troika of the European Union-International Monetary Fund-European Central Bank (EU-IMF-ECB) which wants the government to make another $14.16 billion in cuts or lose continued rescue loans.
Source : http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/08/14/pangalos-says-greeks-still-eating-it-all-together/

Voir également : Grèce : le vice-président Theodoros Pangalos admet la corruption endémique de son pays

Markus Soeder (ministre des Finances bavarois) : la Grèce devrait quitter la zone euro à la fin de l'année et ne plus recevoir d'aide supplémentaire

Bavarian minister says time right for Greece to leave 'mum's house'

Greece should exit the eurozone by year’s end and not receive any more aid, a German regional finance minister has said in a Sunday newspaper interview, further stirring debate on the issue.

Markus Soeder, finance minister in southern Bavaria state and a member of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the region’s sister party to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU, said the euro itself was “right and important”.

“But when a country like Greece on a continuing basis cannot pay back debts, it must leave the eurozone,” he said.


The CSU has often been more critical of EU bailouts than Merkel's party, and the German public has doubts about further guarantees for struggling euro zone nations.

Soeder told Bild am Sonntag newspaper on Sunday that Greece should quit the euro zone this year.

"According to my forecast, Greece should leave the euro zone by the end of the year,» he said. «Germans can no longer be the paymaster for Greece. Every new bit of aid, every relaxation of the guidelines would be the wrong way to go."


Soeder added giving Greece further financial help «is like trying to water a desert». He also said: «At some point, everyone's got to move out of mum's house and for the Greeks the time is ripe for that now."

Last month, German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler said the “horror” of a potential exit by debt-mired Greece had worn off and Transport Minister Peter Ramsauer has also not ruled it out.

Soeder’s remarks prompted criticism from deputy head of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union parliamentary group Michael Meister who said such a debate was damaging and did not help solve the problems.

“That’s a decision for the Greek government to make and the last thing they need is advice from Germany,” he told the Tagesspiegel newspaper according to a pre-released article.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, who has already called for calm in the rhetoric over the eurozone debt crisis, said: “Everyone should pay attention to what they say and how they say it.”

[AFP & Reuters]
   
 ekathimerini.com , Monday August 6, 2012 (11:05)  
Source : http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_06/08/2012_455617

La Chypre grecque est dans "un état plus grave que prévu", selon la Troïka

Debt crisis: Troika finds Cyprus 'in worse state than expected'

12:06PM BST 06 Aug 2012

International lenders assessing Cyprus's bailout needs found the economy in a "worse state than expected" and in need of painful adjustment in coming months, according to reports.


Officials from the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank - known as the "troika" - have visited the island twice since Cyprus asked for financial aid on June 25, the fifth eurozone member state to do so.

They told Cypriot lawmakers on July 27 that challenges to the island's economy did not only stem from its banking sector, which is heavily exposed to Greece, but to fiscal imbalances that needed to be addressed.

Cyprus's two main banks suffered heavy losses from a writedown of Greek sovereign debt earlier this year, which was backed by all EU member states, including Cyprus.

The lenders said they expected the island to be in recession in 2012 and 2013 and highlighted the need to slash an expensive state payroll. They said they did not expect a conclusion to the bailout negotiations until September at the earliest.

The comments are the first public insight into the troika's thinking about Cyprus, whose tiny economy accounts for just 0.2pc of eurozone output.

The disclosures were contained in an official transcript seen by Reuters of a closed meeting of the Cypriot parliament's finance committee. Cypriot media ran excerpts of the discussion at the weekend.

"What we have seen is that your fiscal system is worse than we expected ... prospects for growth are lower than what we expected, and as a result, there is a huge gap between your income and expenditure,"
European Commission representative Maarten Verwey was quoted as saying at the meeting.

Verwey, whose comments were made in English and translated into Greek for the record, said "significant increase and reinforcement" of banking supervision was required.

He said any suggestion of bailout amounts was premature.

Another member of the troika, Delia Velculescu of the IMF, was quoted as saying solving Cyprus's problems would be painful.

"It would have been easier to have fixed them when times were good. Today it is harder because of difficult times, and worst [days] that lie ahead," she said.

Popular Bank and Bank of Cyprus racked up huge losses on their holdings of Greek sovereign debt, causing a €2.3bn combined shortfall in their regulatory capital they asked the state to fill.

The government turned to its EU partners for aid after having been effectively shut out of international debt markets since May 2011. It has also sought aid elsewhere, taking a €2.5bn loan from Russia and has said it may do so again.

On Monday, the Cypriot government said that president Demetris Christofias and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had discussed “further economic cooperation” between the two countries during a phone conversation today.

Verwey said that for the island to regain market access, it would need to narrow the gap between revenues and expenditure.

"You cannot maintain your present lifestyle if this continues ... The government will not be able to pay salaries, so there is an urgent need for adjustment,"
he was quoted as saying.

The island's wage bill, which lawmakers heard was proportionately the highest in the eurozone, needed to be reduced, public benefits revamped, wage indexation modified and changes made to the public pensions system.
Source : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9455790/Debt-crisis-Troika-finds-Cyprus-in-worse-state-than-expected.html

Le député néerlandais Tony van Dijck : "Les Grecs sont et restent des escrocs"

02.08.2012
Le Député PVV Tony van Dijck : “L’euro est fini.”

Pays-Bas. Le Député PVV Tony van Dijck a déclaré lors d’un débat au sein de la Chambre des députés que l’euro est fini.  Il a ajouté que chacun, comme par exemple le président de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) Mario Draghi, essaye de paraître calme, « mais ils savent qu’il est trop tard. Les Grecs sont et restent des escrocs, l’Espagne est irrémédiablement perdue. L’euro est fini. Les différences sont devenues trop grandes. »

(Les députés spécialistes financiers se sont réunis au Parlement afin de débattre avec le ministre des finances, à l’initiative du PVV).
Source : http://lionelbaland.hautetfort.com/archive/2012/08/02/le-depute-pvv-tony-van-dijck-l-euro-est-fini.html

Voir également : Pays-Bas : Geert Wilders exige que l'argent des contribuables néerlandais ne soit plus gaspillé pour la Grèce parasitaire

Pays-Bas : Geert Wilders et Teun van Dijck exigent des explications quant à l'affaire des 400 chars qui auraient été achetés par les Grecs

Pays-Bas : Geert Wilders humilie la Grèce corrompue